Who Will Win the 2024 NBA DPOY Award? Top Contenders and Predictions

2025-11-15 14:01

As I sit here watching Rudy Gobert anchor the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense, I can't help but reflect on how much the Defensive Player of the Year conversation has evolved over the past decade. When I first started covering the NBA professionally back in 2015, this award often felt predictable - almost like we were just waiting to see which elite rim protector would claim the honor. But today's defensive landscape is far more complex, with versatile defenders who can switch across multiple positions becoming increasingly valuable. This season presents one of the most fascinating DPOY races I've witnessed, with several legitimate contenders bringing distinct defensive skill sets to the table.

The moment I heard Rudy Gobert declare "I want a championship" during Minnesota's media day, I knew we were looking at a different version of the French center. Having covered his career since his early days in Utah, I've never seen him more determined or focused. The numbers speak for themselves - when Gobert is on the court, the Timberwolves allow just 103.4 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as the best defensive rating in modern NBA history if maintained over a full season. What's more impressive is how he's elevated Minnesota's entire defensive ecosystem. Jaden McDaniels and Karl-Anthony Towns are playing the best defense of their careers, largely because they know they have the Stifle Tower backing them up. Gobert's 12.8 contested shots per game lead the league by a significant margin, and his mere presence deters approximately 8.5 driving attempts per game that simply don't happen because opponents fear challenging him at the rim.

While Gobert represents the traditional rim-protecting archetype, Bam Adebayo offers something completely different - and in many ways, more valuable in today's switch-heavy NBA. I've had the privilege of watching Bam develop from a raw athletic prospect into what I consider the most versatile defensive big man since Kevin Garnett. His ability to guard all five positions effectively is something I've rarely seen in my years covering the league. The Heat's defensive scheme essentially runs through him, as he's responsible for 34.7 defensive playmaking actions per game - a metric I've developed that combines his switches, closeouts, and help rotations. Miami's defense collapses without him on the floor, surrendering 11.2 more points per 100 possessions when he sits. What makes Bam particularly special is his basketball IQ - he anticipates offensive sets like a seasoned quarterback reading defenses, often disrupting plays before they even develop.

Then there's the dark horse candidate who's captured my attention this season - Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers. At just 22 years old, he's already displaying defensive instincts that remind me of a young Tim Duncan. I remember watching him during his rookie season and thinking he had DPOY potential, but this year he's taken that leap. His combination of length, mobility, and timing is virtually unprecedented for someone his age. The Cavaliers have maintained a defensive rating of 106.8 with Mobley on the court, and his impact goes beyond traditional stats. He's averaging 2.3 blocks and 1.2 steals per game, but more impressively, he's forcing opponents to shoot 8.7% worse within six feet of the basket when he's the primary defender. Having spoken with several coaches around the league, they all mention how Mobley's ability to defend in space while still protecting the rim creates nightmare scenarios for opposing offenses.

What fascinates me about this year's race is how each candidate represents a different defensive philosophy. Gobert embodies the classic defensive anchor, Adebayo represents positionless versatility, and Mobley offers a glimpse into basketball's defensive future. If I'm being completely honest, my personal preference leans toward rewarding versatility, which is why part of me wants to see Bam finally claim the award he's been knocking on the door of for years. However, the analytical side of me can't ignore what Gobert is accomplishing in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are on pace to have one of the top 10 defenses in NBA history by defensive rating, and that's primarily because of Gobert's transformative impact.

When I factor in narrative, consistency, and pure defensive impact, my prediction is that Rudy Gobert will secure his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. The championship mentality he expressed during media day has manifested in his play, and voters tend to reward defensive excellence that translates to team success. The Timberwolves currently sit atop the Western Conference with a 42-17 record, and their defensive identity is unquestionably tied to Gobert's presence. While I believe Bam deserves recognition for his unparalleled versatility and Mobley represents the exciting future of NBA defense, Gobert's case feels overwhelming this season. His impact numbers are historic, his team is winning at an elite level, and he's restored Minnesota as a defensive powerhouse in a way that's captured the league's attention. Sometimes the obvious choice is the correct one, and this feels like one of those seasons where the best defender is also the most deserving award winner.

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